London’s black taxis face extinction within 20 years unless urgent action is taken, new report warns
London’s Black Cabs could vanish from the capital’s roads by 2045 unless urgent action is taken, a new report from Centre for London has warned.
The number of licensed taxis has dropped significantly over the past decade. In 2013-14, there were 22,810 Black Cabs operating in London. By 2023-24, this had fallen by over a third to 14,470.
At the same time, private hire vehicles (PHVs) have surged in numbers. Since 2010, firms such as Uber, Bolt, and Addison Lee have rapidly expanded. The number of PHV drivers licensed by Transport for London (TfL) has risen by 82% since 2009-10, reaching 107,884 in 2023-24.
Public sentiment strongly supports Black Cabs. Two-thirds of Londoners believe more should be done to protect the trade. Black Cabs remain the only fully wheelchair-accessible option in the capital and can be hailed from the street or found at dedicated ranks. All drivers must pass the Knowledge of London exam, a DBS check, and regular medical assessments. Despite their decline, 78% of Londoners still expect them to be around in 100 years.
However, financial pressures are pushing the industry towards collapse. The cost of a new electric Black Cab has risen by 39% since 2017, while financial support for drivers has been cut. The TfL scrappage scheme, which provided £10,000 to remove older vehicles, ended in 2022. The Department for Transport’s Plug-in Taxi Grant has been reduced from £7,500 to £4,000 and will disappear entirely by 2026. This means government support for buying new taxis will drop from £17,500 in 2017 to nothing.
Fewer new drivers are entering the trade. Only 104 new licences were issued in 2024, compared to 1,010 in 2016. The time and effort required to pass the Knowledge of London is a major barrier. The test takes at least three years to complete, discouraging many potential drivers. An industry survey found that 44% of PHV drivers see it as taking too long, while 29% consider it too difficult.
Centre for London is calling for reforms to reverse the decline. It recommends modernising the Knowledge of London to reduce the 66% drop-out rate. A new interest-free loan scheme, similar to Scotland’s Switched On Taxis Loan programme, could help newly qualified drivers afford electric Black Cabs.
Without intervention, one of London’s most iconic symbols could disappear within a generation.
Antonia Jennings, CEO of Centre for London, said: “Black Cabs are a fundamental part of London’s cityscape. We must not let them become part of the capital’s history. Alongside their cultural status, cabs offer what Londoners need today – accessible, convenient and safe transport. We should not be removing these options off the street.
“It’s simply unthinkable for London taxis to become extinct by 2045. Government must step up to support the Black Cab industry and turn this declining trajectory around, before it’s too late.”
Sam Pooke, Head of Public Policy at FREENOW, said: “Taxis are an integral part of London’s transport network, providing high quality safe, accessible journeys for millions of people every year. However, these findings show that without intervention from the Mayor of London, TfL, and central government, the iconic London black cab could soon become a thing of the past.
“Despite costs rising substantially for taxi drivers in recent years, financial support from TfL and central government has become almost non-existent.
“FREENOW strongly endorses the recommendations in this report, and we are calling on the Mayor to instruct TfL to set out a clear strategy for recruiting and retaining taxi drivers as part of its upcoming Action Plan.”
Steve McNamara, General Secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association (LTDA), said: “This important report highlights many of the challenges facing London’s licensed taxi drivers, most notably lack of road access, rising vehicle and operating costs, and the withdrawal of local and national government financial support to assist drivers in making the transition to zero emission capable vehicles. It proposes a range of concrete steps that the Mayor of London and TfL can implement NOW to prevent the worst-case scenarios outlined from being realised. I hope the recommendations are reflected in the Mayor’s forthcoming Taxi Action Plan.
“We’ve been here since the time of Oliver Cromwell, and we aren’t going anywhere soon but London’s iconic taxi trade is at a crossroads – with the right support we can cement its crucial role as fully accessible part of London’s transport mix and the world’s best and greenest taxi service. However, without such support our trade faces very real existential threats and these can no longer be ignored by policymakers.”
